Green Mobility 2033: Four Futures
When we look back someday at 2022 we will probably remember a persistent sense of uncertainty in the air. Is the pandemic over? Is the economy good or bad? What’s going to happen next? Unsettling times have made the futurist mindset more relevant than ever.
A major question of the day is how to address the need to transition to renewable energy. There is currently strong momentum for a path to the future where electric vehicles (EVs) play a notable role in reducing fossil fuel dependency. In the past year we’ve witnessed a growing number of commercial and personal EVs on the road while oil companies hit record profits — a contradiction that perfectly illustrates the cloud of uncertainty. Most importantly, various natural systems are collapsing under the weight of the climate crisis. The need for green mobility, which is defined as a fossil fuel-free form of transportation, seems to be the next chapter in the story.
Green mobility scenarios — Uncertainties matrix to 2033
The uncertainties matrix scenario methodology results in four scenarios based on two key variables. The variables represent the most unpredictable and most impactful driving forces perceived capable of influencing the future of a certain topic and on a certain time horizon. The uncertainties are often set to logical extremes to achieve distinctive scenarios in each quadrant. The uncertainties matrix can be used to address a strategic question such as: “what is the future of green mobility?”
Each scenario has three components: a theme, implications, and signposts. The theme is a synopsis of the conditions in the scenario. Implications from each scenario describe the impacts on the mobility ecosystem, society, and business should a given scenario come to pass. Signposts are proposed milestones that could occur on the path to a particular future.
•Variable 1 — Energy source: what will power future electric vehicles? Will battery-powered or hydrogen fuel cell dominate?
•Variable 2 — Raw materials for energy transition: what is the status of the natural resources (metals, minerals, and fossil fuels) necessary to pivot to EVs? Will resources be scarce or abundant?
Green mobility scenario parameters
The clean energy transition is assumed to continue despite the uncertainty whether adequate raw materials exist to pivot to renewables. There is low confidence that we’ll have the supply of rare earth minerals for a battery-powered EV future soon enough so the other option for the scenarios is hydrogen powered Fuel Cell EVs (FCEVs).
Driving technology is expected to remain constant. Automobiles will continue to be a vital transportation option alongside more innovative concepts in green mobility. Autonomous vehicles are not considered a variable in these scenarios, but they would certainly play a role in the future of mobility, and potentially EVs.
It is assumed that the green economy will be lucrative and attractive to investors. EVs are the dominant paradigm of clean cars, but hybrid vehicles and biofuels are feasible alternatives competing for the green mobility future.
The scenarios take a US-centric perspective in terms of EV tax credits and supply chain. The US market for EVs is rising but is not yet at the level of Asia or Europe.
1. THEME: Trickle Across to 2033
Hydrogen fuel cell EVs penetrate every market segment, from passenger to commercial. There is a flurry of design and creativity to reach a range of customers. Rapid adoption helps reach desired climate goals quickly. New entrants to the ecosystem thrive in the lucrative green economy.
IMPLICATIONS:
- Surplus of low-priced FCEVs
- Climate goals met by eliminating ICEs
- Tax credits support FCEVs
- Health indicators improve
- Customer base grows
- Many new collaborators in mobility ecosystem
Signposts ICE vehicle bans, Retrofitted EVs, Hydrogen FCEVs outsell ICEs for first time
2. THEME: Trickle Up to 2033
FCEVs are the dominant form of EV engines, but adoption lags due to slow manufacturing speeds and high prices not being offset by tax benefits. People buy cars and drive less, opting for clean public transport. Biofuels become a viable option for adapted ICE vehicles.
IMPLICATIONS:
- High priced FCEVs in short supply
- Tax credits diverted to other forms of green energy
- Space and undersea mining
- Designed for long-haul transport
- Mobility ecosystem shrinks
Signposts Biofuel innovation, EV charging station penetration slows, Hydrogen fleets of freight and mass transit vehicles
3. THEME: Slow Trickle to 2033
Logistics, delivery and ride sharing businesses gradually shift to EVs, but consumers are left behind. New storage solutions emerge but range is still a limitation. Biomimicry, 3D printing, and genetic sciences involved in creating alternative resources. The search for a battery breakthrough is the new Space Race.
IMPLICATIONS:
- Supply chain shocks
- Climate progress stalls
- Innovative new energy sources and storage solutions
- Clean energy cartel forms
- Ecosystem stagnates
Signposts EV subscriptions, Artificial substitutes for natural resources, Hybrid vehicles on the rise
4. THEME: Trickle Down to 2033
A variety of BEVs brands gain market share at an affordable cost to customers. Commercial uses expand while EV storage and range improve. Battery use and persistent mining tarnish modest climate change achievements. Drivers sell excess energy to the grid. Mobility ecosystem becomes a business school case study example.
IMPLICATIONS:
- Low priced BEVs attract diverse customers
- Climate goals are met and surpassed
- E-waste builds up as a result of battery disposal
- EV excess powering homes and buildings
- Mobility ecosystem consolidates
Signposts Discovery of new rare earth mining site, Influx of discarded ICE vehicles, Gas stations become the new Kodak/Blockbuster
Signals of green mobility on the horizon
These scenarios are based on “future-bearing facts” (Berger) which can be observed in the present. These are data points with the potential to shape future conditions. Signals with regard to the future of green mobility include:
The average age of the typical car driven in the USA is at a record high, suggesting many existing ICE vehicles will be replaced, repaired or possibly retrofitted in the next decade.
Though batteries dominate, a green car partnership between BMW and Toyota plans to sell jointly-developed hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2025.
The International Energy Agency claims that the auto industry will require 30 times more minerals per year to meet various climate targets. Battery metal prices are rising steadily.
It is estimated that EVs could comprise 90% of the global market by 2027.
Alternative battery chemistry technologies could solve overreliance on precarious raw materials.
Adjustments to supply chain requirements could result in most EVs being disqualified for the federal tax incentive. For example, vehicles will have to be produced in North America to qualify for the credits.
References:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2022/05/24/average-american-car-12-years-old/9907901002/
https://www.engadget.com/bmw-toyota-hydrogen-fuel-cell-car-release-date-192536514.html
https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/charted-the-most-expensive-battery-metals/
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/11/28/evs-could-account-for-90-share-of-the-market-by-2027/
https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-battery-vs-hydrogen-fuel-cell/
https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/hydrogen-fuel-cars/
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/inflation-reduction-act-ev-tax-credits-could-hurt-sales.html
